Um modelo de regressão de logit não-linear para determinar a probabilidade de acidente de motoristas na Argélia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14195/1647-7723_29-2_6Palavras-chave:
Acidente de viação, , motorista,, modelo de regressão não linear,, logit,, probabilidade, , variáveis explicativas.Resumo
O objetivo do estudo é estimar um modelo logit de regressão não linear para calcular a probabilidade de ocorrência de acidente rodoviário na Argélia. Referindo-se à literatura, essa probabilidade depende de diversas variáveis relacionadas ao motorista, ao veículo e ao ambiente viário. Assim, o objetivo é mostrar quais variáveis explicativas favorecem a ocorrência de um acidente de trânsito e em que medida. Além disso, buscamos estimar a probabilidade de acidente um motorista com determinadas características, dirigindo um veículo com determinadas características e possuindo carteira de habilitação com determinada antiguidade. A estrutura da estimativa é baseada em dados desagregados recolhidos na sequência da análise de arquivos proposta pela seguradora argelina. Os resultados obtidos permitem determinar qual a categoria de variáveis com significância e um papel importante na explicação da probabilidade de ocorrência dos acidentes.
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