Using multi-level analysis to evaluate the vulnerability of the LMA population to heat

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of heat on mortality of the resident population in the metropolitan Lisbon area (MLA). Using a multivariate statistical technique - multilevel analysis – we try to model the spatial variation of mortality in critical periods. The spatial levels considered in the analysis were parishes and municipalitys. The mortality values were standardized by age, using as standard population of AML, yielding a standardized mortality ratio (SMR), which is the dependent variable in the analysis. The independent variables were used different indicators of population status, socio-economic and urban development. At the first level (parish) variables that were associated significantly to the variation of RPM were the percentage of the institutionalized population and deprivation index sociomaterial; the introduction of the municipal level in the analysis increased slightly, but significantly, the explanation of variance RPM, being included in the analysis the gain medium and an index of health and social care.