Mapping socio-environmental vulnerability to the desertification process in the northeastern region of Brazil: The case of the Cabrobó nucleus

Abstract

Desertification generally has adverse environmental, social, and economic consequences. However, areas lacking adequate social and infrastructural conditions face greater challenges in addressing the risks associated with desertification. Research evaluating the socio-environmental implications of the desertification process remains limited. In Brazil, the Cabrobó desertification nucleus is characterised by significant economic activities such as irrigated fruit farming and fish farming. Although this region has been the subject of several studies addressing the physical and natural impacts of desertification, investigations focusing on socio-environmental aspects, particularly vulnerability, are still scarce. Vulnerability mapping is a crucial tool for informing and improving public policy, particularly when it is based on census sector data. This study aimed to develop vulnerability maps of the desertification risk for the Cabrobó desertification nucleus. The analysis utilised census sector data from five municipalities: Cabrobó, Belém do São Francisco, Carnaubeira da Penha, Itacuruba, and Floresta, based on the 2010 census, the last provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). It was not possible to use more recent census sector data, as such data are currently unavailable. Social variables and environmental variables were included in the analysis. Indices were generated using Exploratory Factor Analysis and subsequently visualised on maps. The results revealed varying levels of vulnerability across census sectors, with social and rural socio-environmental vulnerabilities being particularly high. Strengthened collaboration between government and society is essential for improving regional conditions. The findings of this study may support the development of targeted social assistance policies for residents of the region.