Analysing the exposure of participants in trail-running events to wildfire risk: contributions for safety planning

Abstract

The end of the rural economic model, the consequent abandonment of its related activities and the migration of the corresponding population, led to a growing accumulation of fuel load that favours the development of rural fires. Furthermore, recent studies about the possible consequences of climate change show there is a tendency for the intensity and the impacts of rural fires to increase. These factors, combined with the rise in the practice of outdoor activities where fire hazard is more critical, have led to many more people being exposed to fire risk in rural environments. In this context, an indicator is proposed which is associated with a matrix that assesses the rural fire risk exposure context (CER) to which trail-running (TR) practitioners are subjected. The proposed methodology is applied to several TR events that took place in mainland Portugal to illustrate its potential. Based on the predicted consequences for a given level of CER, measures to mitigate the impacts of a possible rural fire during a TR event are also suggested. Given its simplicity, the proposed indicator is a useful tool to manage the risk of rural fires in TR events and is compatible with the legal constraints recently published in a piece of legislation.