Safety of the oil and gas sector in Brazil: past climate and future scenarios faced with climate change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14195/1647-7723_29-2_2Keywords:
Major accident,, oil and gas,, atmospheric risk,, climate change.Abstract
Emissions, fire, or explosions of harmful substances are called a major accident. Such events can be caused or aggravated by atmospheric conditions. The purpose of this paper is to address the variables and events of the atmosphere in Brazil with the potential for harming the safety of the oil and gas sector. The wind, temperature, and precipitation, as well as lightning, heatwaves, and tornadoes, are analysed for 12 sub-areas with extraction oil and gas or the refining, storage, and transport of their products. Past climate (1961-2000) is analysed through numerical simulation and scientific literature. The risks of extreme values for temperature and wind were calculated for both the 1961-2000 period and future projections (2020-2099), which consider two possible scenarios, one optimistic and one pessimistic. Regarding the maximum temperature, projection results show increased risk for the future period compared with past climate, with more significant impact on the tropical sub-areas of Brazil. Considering the pessimistic scenario, the trend is for maximum risk in these tropical areas. In terms of extreme wind speed, the optimistic and pessimistic projections both show risk varying from 1 to 2, on a scale of 0 to 4 in the future climate period, which is the same standard observed during the past climate.
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