Methodology for mapping the probability of fire occurrence in the Brazilian cerrado biome based on the danger of fire propagation variables

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14195/1647-7723_29-1_8

Keywords:

Fire Outbreaks, geospatial analysis, logistic regression, Brazilian cerrado biome, Brazil

Abstract

The area covered by the Brazilian cerrado biome has been greatly reduced in recent years due to the expansion of agricultural land and the increased number of fire outbreaks. The objective of this paper is to propose a methodology based on geospatial analysis and logistic regression analysis (LRA) for mapping the probability of fire occurrence in Brazilian cerrado conservation units. This model was applied in the Serra da Canastra National Park (SCNP) in the Southeast of Brazil. The methodology uses the maps of the following environmental variables, which are related to the danger of fire propagation: wind effect (WIN), terrain convexity (CVX), slope (SLO), drainage density (DRD), altitude (ELV), vegetation index (NDVI), and road density (ROD). The results of the LRA showed that the variables SLO, ELV, NDVI, ROD (p<0.0001), DRD (p=0.0005) and WIN (p=0.0007) contributed significantly to the occurrence of fire outbreaks. The model correctly classified 94.26% of cases. We conclude that this methodology can be used to inform the planning of firefighting actions in the Brazilian cerrado biome.

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Author Biography

Cassiano, National Institute for Spatial Research (INPE)

Possui graduação em Geografia Bacharelado com ênfase em análise ambiental e geoprocessamento (2011) e Geografia Licenciatura pela Universidade Federal de Alfenas (2012). Possui mestrado em Geografia, pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (2014). Possui doutorado em Geografia, pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (2018). Atuou em projetos desenvolvidos nos laboratórios de Geomorfologia e Solos (ICN-Unifal-MG), Geosolos (Epamig-UFLA), Análise Espacial e Geoprocessamento (IG-Unicamp) e Aprendizagem em Logística e transportes (FEC-Unicamp). Atualmente atua como auditor no Projeto de Monitoramento do Desmatamento na Amazônia Legal por Satélite (PRODES), no Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). Área de atuação: Sensoriamento Remoto, Geoprocessamento, Análise Espacial e Modelagem de Dados Espaciais em SIG.

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Published

2021-12-17

Issue

No. 29(I) (2022): Act today to protect tomorrow

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Articles

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