Inflation in Portugal Through the Lens of the Fair Model

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203X_57_4

Keywords:

Cost push, econometric modeling, Fair model, forecasting, inflation

Abstract

This study delves into the dynamics of inflation in Portugal, employing a cost-push model as the analytical framework. The model is estimated using data from 2000Q2 to 2020Q1, a period predating the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in inflation. We then produce forecasts spanning from 2020Q2 to 2023Q2. The forecasts hint strongly at a structural break during this latter period, implying that the model offers insufficient representation of inflation dynamics in Portugal. We conclude with a discussion of the model's strengths and limitations in understanding inflation dynamics, shedding light on critical aspects that impact its explanatory power.

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Published

2024-02-20

Issue

No. 57 (2023)

Section

Letters

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows sharing the work with recognition of authorship and initial publication in Antropologia Portuguesa journal.