O mercado de crédito especializado ao consumo em Portugal

Abstract

This paper analyses the consumer credit market in Portugal for the period from 1998 to 2011. The econometric analysis considers several linear regression models that are used to identify and evaluate the impact of independent variables on consumer credit, based on the life-cycle theory of consumption, the economics of consumer credit, and the theory of household and personal finance. The findings indicate that quarterly variations of consumer credit are significantly influenced by the credit variation of the previous quarter, and, additionally just during the fourth quarter, also by the seasonal factor, for every year under analysis. Furthermore, imports also make a relevant contribution to the evolution of the consumer credit market.