From ill-defined risks to present threats. Vulnerability management
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14195/1647-7723_31-extra1_6Keywords:
Uncertainties, probabilities, psychology and protectionAbstract
Risk, risk analysis and management have developed considerably and now they often structure communication, perceptions and public or private actions. In the case of technical risk assessment, in many situations it is possible to obtain rational results to support operationally effective decisions. But there are situations in which risks are intrinsically ill-defined for different reasons and the effective operational capacity for prevention or protection is lost. After a brief review of the concepts associated with risk, the text highlights the case of ill-defined risks and develops two examples: 1) the situation of short-term 1st order effects, and 2nd order, diffuse effects that develop over the long term; the environmental and climate crises are examples that have already been well identified, as well as new technologies that are still in the initial phase of intensive use, but which raise concerns about the future effects on humanity; 2) the situation associated simultaneously with events of very low probability of occurrence and with very relevant consequences, such as the occurrence of an intense earthquake in an important urban environment. The main conclusion: the so-called ill-defined risks are difficult challenges, but they must be tackled unwaveringly.
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