A Inflação em Portugal da Perspetiva do Modelo de Fair

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203X_57_4

Palavras-chave:

Cost push, econometric modeling, Fair model, forecasting, inflation

Resumo

This study delves into the dynamics of inflation in Portugal, employing a cost-push model as the analytical framework. The model is estimated using data from 2000Q2 to 2020Q1, a period predating the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge in inflation. We then produce forecasts spanning from 2020Q2 to 2023Q2. The forecasts hint strongly at a structural break during this latter period, implying that the model offers insufficient representation of inflation dynamics in Portugal. We conclude with a discussion of the model's strengths and limitations in understanding inflation dynamics, shedding light on critical aspects that impact its explanatory power.

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Publicado

2024-02-20

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